www.eastmoney.com on December 11, 2014 03:51 daily economic news

On December 9, the Shanghai composite index fell 5.43%, but the financing the guest obviously has not been: data show that the Shanghai and shenzhen two city financing balance is 919.965 billion yuan, year-on-year growth of 1.32%

Financing guest facing down it at the same time, the daily economic news "reporter also from borrowing the guest found a rule: since June of this year's data, as long as a day of the net sales amount for short (the difference between the securities sold amount minus the amount of pay) is negative, the two days after the Shanghai composite index has risen for the probability of is as high as 81.82%.

Net sales is directly proportional to the length and the Shanghai composite index up

9 A stocks plummeted across the board, the Shanghai composite index fell 163.99 points, fell to 2856.27 points. The financing guest waded, however, continue to chase. 9, according to data from Shanghai and shenzhen two city financing balance rushed up to 919.965 billion yuan, continues the daily record "normality".

"Daily economic news" reporter noticed that the a-share securities sold A net volume was 115 million shares. So-called securities sold a net amount, minus the repayment amount is securities sold the difference. Securities sold a net amount is negative, means that the amount of borrowing to pay back, and borrowing to repay the premise is: investors expect the stock will not continue to fall, so use cash to buy stocks to the securities company.

Reporters statistics on December 9, June 1 ~ 33 securities sold a net amount of negative (for continuous several days is negative, only make a) within two days after the Shanghai composite index up or down, noticed that there are 27 times the Shanghai composite index all recorded a positive earnings. And if the securities sold a net amount is negative, the longer the duration after the Shanghai composite index up more.

Such as August 25 to September 1, the net sales amount for short negative, for six consecutive trading day on September 2, the Shanghai composite index rose 1.37%, 3, and up 1%; As October 21 ~ 27, borrowing negative net selling amount for five consecutive trading days, the Shanghai composite index surged 2.07% on October 28, 29, and up 1.50%; And as December 2 ~ 3, borrowing net selling amount is negative, for two consecutive days on December 4, the Shanghai composite index up 4.32%.

This rule, of course, also have failure, the most typical example is on December 5th, the day of the net sales amount is negative, for short on December 8, the Shanghai composite index rose 2.81%, 9 has tumbled 5.43%.

Analyst: rise will continue

"Daily economic news" reporter noticed that on December 9, the Shanghai composite index fell on the same day, financing balance of the top three industry, investors are still familiar with the securities, banking and property sectors.

Yesterday led media plates, from 9 stocks financing, in the media sector, phoenix media (601928, the closing price of 111.74 yuan) rose 23% month-on-month financing balance; Can electricity shares of anhui power (000543, the closing price of 11.40 yuan) financing balance with 17% quarter-on-quarter growth rank, power sector also surged yesterday; Liquor stock, qing chang (002646, the closing price of 19.16 yuan) 9, financing balance is 329 million yuan, rose 18%, the sector in the pearl river beer yesterday jumped 5.20% jump empty, tsingtao beer was up 3.92%.

On December 9, for the risk of a sudden, in fact, there are brokers had in the previous call two financial investors "flu shot".

Catic securities margin, an analyst at 8, publishing research reports, due to the short term index to rise too fast, the market risk of a correction, on the one hand, the low valuation of the blue-chip plate, soaring increase in profit lock-in and the disc plate selling pressure; Lever Angle, from Canada, on the other hand, the financing balance of increment and the ratio of financing purchases continue to decrease, which means that short-term arbitrage mood gradually thick leveraged funds.

Medium and long term trends to A shares, catic securities analysts believe that the fuse of this trend is cut, the market for the future monetary easing has been formed consensus, which will cut interest rates more than once, reduced the possibility of quasi also significantly increased. In addition, the risk-free interest rates fell for the traditional periodic weighting valuation industry has had a huge impact, can cause periodic stock rotation, at the same time, the rapidly advancing reforms super market confidence, black hole reform blocked funds, at present, the market approval has been issued and will be the policy is to remove the tail risks to economic growth point, so that the market valuation. If the policy direction and the same intensity, the market will continue rising.

Founder securities analysts believe that the market rebound in the core logic is "systemic risk reduction + liquidity improvement", to the market factors that have impact the medium term trend as the risk of deflation, observation points in the first and second quarters of next year. Attention from plate, founder securities, according to continue to watch the financial, real estate sector, topics, focus on land reform and plate of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region, with an emphasis on tianjin plate.